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Stocks Climb, Treasuries Drop as Georgia Votes

Stocks rose and bonds dropped amid important elections in Georgia that could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate for the next two years, setting the scope of President elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

In a time marked by thin trading volume, the S&P 500 rebounded after suffering its worst start to a season after 2016. Energy shares surged as oil traded near $50 a barrel, even though the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies jumped 1.7 %. With markets factoring in an even greater chance of a Democratic sweep of Congress, several analysts see the possibility for heightened volatility. In anticipation to the result of the Georgia vote, that will probably be acknowledged on Wednesday, Treasury yields climbed — with an important curve measure reaching the steepest level of its in 4 years. The dollar slipped to the lowest since February 2018.

Whether or perhaps not Wall Street is actually becoming much more at ease with the idea of Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress, the scenario suggests the chance of a more generous stimulus package. Which could likely cause upward pressure on rates and inflation along with higher taxes to spend on fiscal tool. Alternatively, should possibly Republican incumbent win re-election, the party will have sufficient votes to block any Biden initiative.

We don’t view a Democrat Senate as a bearish game changer in the short term because there’d still be a great deal of positives of this market, Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter, wrote to a note to clients. We would appear to purchase on virtually any material dip, though we should brace for even more volatility going forward if that’s the end result from today’s election.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump failed again to invalidate the election loss of his of Georgia and allow the state’s Republican-led legislature to declare him the winner — his latest courtroom defeat in a quixotic effort to stay in office despite losing the Nov. 3 vote.

Another information development which caught investors interest was the brand new York Stock Exchange’s surprise choice to spare three leading Chinese telecommunications companies from being delisted. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called NYSE Group Inc. President Stacey Cunningham to express his disapproval, based on two individuals acquainted with the issue. Several U.S. officials said the move represents a short-term reprieve, not really a sign that tensions between Beijing and Washington are actually easing.

Somewhere else, Saudi Arabia surprised the oil market with a big reduction in the output of its for March as well as February, carrying a much better burden of OPEC cuts while some other makers hold steady or make little increases.

What you should watch this week:

U.S. Congress meets counting electoral votes and declare the winner of the 2020 Presidential election Wednesday.
FOMC minutes through Wednesday.
U.S. unemployment report for December is actually due Friday.
These’re several of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.7 % as of 4 p.m. New York time.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 %.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.1 %.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.5 %.
The euro gained 0.4 % to $1.2291.
The Japanese yen appreciated 0.4 % to 102.74 per dollar.

Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 0.95 %.
Germany’s 10 year yield jumped three basis points to -0.58 %.
Britain’s 10 year yield climbed four basis points to 0.209 %.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude surged 4.9 % to $49.93 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.3 % to $1,948.17 an ounce.

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